A Pictorial Update on Our Latest Thoughts and the Facts and Figures Influencing Our Industry
The CBRE Hotels Research State of the Union showcases a pictorial review of current hotel trends, leading and coincident indicators of hotel demand, and an update on cost pressures and margin flow-through. The report showcases current demand trends, as well as fundamentals by segment, location type and chain scale. The report also provides a brief update on short-term rental, group business, and capital market trends, the transaction market, the impact of virtual work and the outlook for office vacancy.
CBRE calls for a mild recession in 2023. GDP is expected to be flat in 2023 with negative growth in H1 2023 and positive growth in H2 2023.
Unemployment remains low but is expected to increase. Full employment and worker shortage will lead to further wage pressures.
CBRE expects higher and more persistent inflation. Inflation is expected to remain above the long-run average of 3.3% until 2024.
August RevPAR weakens. Most chain scales and location types saw a pullback relative to 2019.
TSA throughput data remains above 90% of 2019 post Labor Day. TSA data and Google search trends data continue to be positive.
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Consumer and business outlook is softening. Credit levels are on the rise while business and consumer confidence wane.
Post Labor Day return-to-office disappoints. A disappointing return-to-office is a headwind to business travel.
International travel continues to rebound. Despite FX headwinds, we expect international travel to drive demand.
The inflationary environment is leading to margin pressures. July margins declined 420 basis points year over year.
Head of Hotels Research
Sr. Research Analyst