February 28, 2022
A Pictorial Update on Our Latest Thoughts and the Facts and Figures Influencing Our Industry

The CBRE Hotels Research State of the Union showcases a pictorial review of current hotel trends, leading and coincident indicators of hotel demand, and an update on cost pressures and margin flow-through. The report showcases current demand trends, as well as fundamentals by segment, location type and chain scale. The report also provides a brief update on short-term rental, group business, and capital market trends, the transaction market, the impact of virtual work and the outlook for office vacancy.

Key Takeaways



 The worst of 2022 is likely behind us. January was a low point, but things have started to improve in February. [12, 13, 21] 

Recent travel trend data and leading indicators indicate that trends should continue to improve over the near term.  [26-27]

The reopening of the US border in November has led to strong gains in inbound international travel, with many gateways reaching or exceeding their 2019 levels in December; however, there is still material runway for growth in 2022 and expect markets like New York, San Francisco, Miami, and Los Angeles to continue to benefit. [22, 23]

Both OTA and brand.com have essentially recovered to pre-pandemic levels. Group and corporate travel remain the laggards. [43, 44]

Operating efficiencies observed during the summer of 2021 waned during the back of the year. December 2021 GOP levels exceeded 2019, but full-year 2021 GOP came in 35.5% below 2019. [46 - 49]

Stronger GOP levels resulted in a nearly 50% reduction in CMBS delinquency from December 2020 to December 2021. [52, 53]

Short-term rental market share has normalized as hotels have reopened. Large units in southern and drive-to destinations are driving revenue growth. [31-35]

2022 GDP estimates have been negatively revised and rate increases could be a headwind, but an optimistic labor outlook and the ‘return to office’ should support further RevPAR gains. [4-10]

Hotel construction expenditures continue to pull back and input cost increases will remain headwinds to incremental supply growth, boosting investor appetite for existing assets. [37-41]

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Contact


Rachael Rothman
Head of Hotels Research
CBRE Hotels
[email protected]

Will Webster
Sr. Research Analyst
CBRE Hotels
[email protected]