May 27, 2022

A Pictorial Update on Our Latest Thoughts and the Facts and Figures Influencing Our Industry

The CBRE Hotels Research State of the Union showcases a pictorial review of current hotel trends, leading and coincident indicators of hotel demand, and an update on cost pressures and margin flow-through. The report showcases current demand trends, as well as fundamentals by segment, location type and chain scale. The report also provides a brief update on short-term rental, group business, and capital market trends, the transaction market, the impact of virtual work and the outlook for office vacancy.

Key Takeaways

 

  • ⎻ Despite downward pressure on economic growth, the hotel recovery continues. We expect a full demand recovery in 2023. [5-10]
  • With positive GDP growth currently forecasted and higher inflation expected to continue, ADR growth will likely continue to outpace inflation in the near termHowever, continued labor shortages could result in higher wages and margin pressures. [12-17]
  • We continue to see record levels of ADR and occupancy is improving. TSA throughput continues to hold steady at over 90% of 2019 levels. [19-22]
  • Hotel-specific leading indicators show no signs of deterioration. However, macroeconomic leading indicators suggest there could be challenges ahead. [24-32]
  • International travelers have returned from most of the top 10 markets except some countries in Asia. East and west coast gateway markets continue to strengthen. However, west coast Asia-dependent markets lag.  [34-36]
  • Inflationary pressures driven by higher oil and gas prices are likely to have a negative impact on margins and could be a headwind to topline growth. [25, 26, 41]
  • ⎻ The supply outlook continues to moderate caused by labor shortages, wage pressures, and supply chain issues. However, recently, hotel construction starts picked up slightly, rising to $1.5 billion. [43-46]
  • CBRE Hotels Research forecasts RevPAR and ADR recovery in 2022. Lower-priced hotels lead the way with mid-scale and economy hotels reaching 2019 RevPAR levels in 2021. While RevPAR in most markets will fully recover in 2022, seven markets will remain more than 10% below 2019 levels. [51-55]

 

EXPLORE THE REPORT

 

Contact


Rachael Rothman, CFA

Head of Hotels Research
CBRE Hotels
[email protected]

Will Webster
Sr. Research Analyst
CBRE Hotels
[email protected]