HOTEL CURRENTS™ | Economics and Hotel Financial Performance

Slowdown Not Shutdown

​June 15, 2016, By Jack Corgel, Ph.D.

Enrollment spiked at the School of Hotel Market Doom and Gloom as public sentiment about the U.S. hotel industry’s financial performance turned from positive to negative. The first quarter of 2016 was less than stellar: U.S. GDP growth was less than 1%; concern about international economic strength grew; and public markets fell due to a continuing flow of bad news (the exception being employment growth). Q1 2016 hotel occupancy declined by 0.5%, amazingly causing concern despite the prior year’s solid results. Demand grew by nearly 3% in 2015 while supply increased by just over 1% and RevPAR jumped 6.3%, according to STR data. We believe that 2015 marked the top of the business cycle for hotels, but this observation doesn’t imply the start of a downhill ride. Our new Hotel Horizons® forecast calls for a reduction in the national RevPAR growth rate from 5.5% to 4.2%. Financial performance among many U.S. hotels is slowing, not shutting down!

Why the Slowdown?

At my School of Hotel Hope and Promise, courses on rational economic thought reinforce ideas about income and consumption, along with the basics of demand, supply and cyclical patterns of real asset markets. The list of potential explanations for a hotel slowdown begins with a simple comparison of demand and supply. Demand grew at a paltry 1% in Q1 2016, while supply grew by 1.5%. This supply growth rate was anticipated; the slower demand growth rate was not. The underlying economic numbers do not provide much guidance for Q1’s weak hotel demand growth. Revised GDP growth came in at only 0.8% and among the culprits was a negative 0.45% in business investment. Personal consumption grew faster in Q1 2016 than a year earlier and in Q1 2014. Piling on, real personal income grew by a healthy 3.3% during the quarter.

In the absence of a rational economic explanation for the industry’s weak first-quarter performance, only behavioral explanations remain. Uncertainty was rampant in Q1 as the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) exceeded 30 twice during the quarter before settling into the mid-teens in late March. Business and leisure travelers apparently decided to stay home rather than venture out into uncertain territory. The slowdown should ease in Q2 2016 as the uncertainty boogeyman appears to have retreated to his cave.

Why Not a Shutdown?

Hotel financial performance can be evaluated in levels (i.e., dollars) and in changes (i.e., growth). For some public market investors in hotels, the slowdown in RevPAR growth represents a signal to rotate out of lodging and into other sectors with higher expected growth rates. Among its other characteristics, Wall Street has a fixation for growth. The Baird/STR Hotel Stock Index reveals that public market investors fear a hotel market downturn is imminent.

In Hotel Demand and Real Personal Income: Inextricably Linked, Brett Edgerton and I present evidence that since 2010 real personal income has been the single most important determinant of the number of hotel rooms sold in the U.S.1 In Why Hotels? Economy Weakens but Hotels Remain Relatively Strong – What Gives? And What Might Give?, Mark Woodworth and I show that U.S. hotel demand sustains as long as more educated, upper-income workers do not suffer the ill effects of an economic downturn.2 Real personal incomes and employment conditions among skilled workers continue to provide solid foundations for hotel demand at the property level. We forecast that supply will more closely align with demand in the coming years; however, in our view, demand and supply will not become so unbalanced in favor of supply to foster much reduction in dollar flows. Hotels are making money with a cushion against disturbances. The attached chart (Exhibit 1) shows GOP (Gross Operating Profit) margins reached near record highs in 2015 and are forecast to exceed previous high-water marks in 2016.


 

If Not a Shutdown, Than What?

I offer a scenario in which hotel markets at their peak operate similar to engines operating at high revolutions per minute – they both oscillate. The behavioral interpretation of this seemingly mechanical process is that at cyclical peaks market participants have greater difficulty than during up-and-down cyclical phases determining whether the market is headed upward to a new peak or downward into a potential trough. Thus, reactions to news, either positive or negative, elicit modest yet visible economic responses. The previous two shutdowns were quite severe and precipitated by extraordinarily painful events. Exhibit 2 presents an alternative scenario in which neither a severe shock nor overbuilding occurs, but instead the hotel market mean reverts (i.e., oscillates) with a slight upward trend.


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1 Corgel and Edgerton (2016)
2 Corgel and Woodworth (2012)

References

Corgel, J., and M. Woodworth. "Why Hotels? Economy Weakens but Hotels Remain Relatively Strong-- What Gives? And What Might Give?" Cornell Hospitality Quarterly 53.4 (2012): 270-73.
Corgel, J., and B. Edgerton. "Hotel Demand and Real Personal Income: Inextricably Linked!" CBRE Knowledge Center. CBRE Hotels, 8 Apr. 2016.

FOR MORE INFORMATION REGARDING THIS ARTICLE, PLEASE CONTACT:​

​Jack Corgel
​Managing Director, CBRE Hotels’ Americas Research
Professor of Real Estate at the Cornell University School of Hotel Administration
​jack.corgel@cbre.com